THE CANADIAN ECONOMY, DEPENDENT ON THE EXPORTS OF OIL AND OTHER RAW MATERIALS IN THE LAST YEARS AND BEING THE FIFTH LARGEST GAS PRODUCER IN THE WORLD, GROWED 2.1% IN 2018, MAKING CANADA THE SECOND G7 WITH THE HIGHEST ECONOMIC GROWTH, AFTER THE USA. AN INCREASE IN PRIVATE CONSUMPTION, INVESTMENT IN BUSINESSES AND HIGHER WAGES CONTRIBUTED TO THIS ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE.
For 2019, the IMF forecasts GDP growth of 2%, followed by 1.8% the following year. Considering that Canada is also among the largest oil producers in the world and the third in the world in oil reserves, much of the country’s future performance will depend on the level of global crude oil prices.
The relationship between Canada’s debt and GDP was estimated at 87.3% of GDP in 2018, expecting it to decline to 84.7% in 2019. The government announced its intention to ensure an increase in public consumption in 2019, implementing additional measures such as a new fiscal support program that will allow manufacturers to immediately recover the total cost of machinery and equipment, as well as an immediate decrease in the cost of clean energy equipment.
The combination of high household indebtedness, rising interest rates and a progressive wage slowdown is expected to constrain household consumption, so business investment is considered crucial to Canada’s future economic performance. Other potential threats to the country’s growth are instability in commodity prices, fears of a Hard Brexit and persistent trade disputes between China and the United States.
The unemployment rate stood at 6.1% in 2018 and is expected to remain stable in 2019 and 2020 (6.2%, IMF).